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The Dunning-Kruger Effect 101
+ something for the intellectually curious
Ayush Chaturvedi
July 27, 2025
In partnership with
Last week, a LinkedIn post went viral with 50K+ likes - "How I Built $10K MRR in 30 Days with Vibe Coding (And You Can Too!)"
The post was full of confident proclamations about "simple frameworks," "obvious market gaps," and "guaranteed results." The author, who appeared to have started their entrepreneurial journey weeks earlier, was dispensing advice like a seasoned business guru.
Meanwhile, in my SaaS founder community, people who've built actual companies over years, the response was... silence.
My most successful founder friends rarely post on LinkedIn. When they do, it's usually thoughtful questions or nuanced observations about how uncertain and complex building a business really is.
You've just witnessed the Dunning-Kruger Effect in action.
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What Is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
The Dunning-Kruger Effect is the tendency for people with limited knowledge or competence in a domain to overestimate their own expertise, while true experts tend to underestimate their relative skill level.
In simple terms: The less you know, the more confident you tend to be. The more you know, the more you realize how much you don't know.
Why This Happens
This isn't about intelligence—it's about awareness.
When you're new to something, you lack the metacognitive skills to recognize your own incompetence. You literally don't know what you don't know.
Meanwhile, experts have climbed the mountain of knowledge far enough to see how much more mountain remains. They also assume others share more of their knowledge base than they actually do.
Real-World Examples
"Get Rich Quick" gurus confidently promising easy wealth while experienced investors discuss risk management and market volatility
New entrepreneurs claiming business is "easy" while seasoned founders know how many variables can derail even the best plans
Social media "experts" with loud, viral content versus quiet professionals who've spent decades mastering their craft
"Imposter syndrome" among highly skilled professionals who feel like frauds despite their deep competence
How to Spot (and Avoid) This Bias
In Others:
Be skeptical of "guaranteed results" and overly simplified business advice
Notice who's making the most noise versus who's quietly building
Pay attention to experienced professionals who speak in nuances rather than absolutes
In Yourself:
When you feel like sharing a "simple solution," ask: "What complexity am I missing?"
Before posting confident advice, consider: "How much do I actually know about this?"
Remember that real expertise often sounds uncertain because experts understand the variables
The goal isn't to become cynical—it's to develop the intellectual humility that leads to better decisions and more sustainable success.
What's the most overconfident business advice you've seen go viral lately? Hit reply and let me know. I read every response and often share the best insights (anonymously) in future newsletters.
That’s it for this week
Cheers,
Ayush & Aditi
P.S. The irony of writing confidently about the Dunning-Kruger Effect is not lost on me. I might be demonstrating it right now.