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- 📓 Ben Evans X Shane Parrish
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Everyone's either convinced AI will end the world or that it's all hype.
But here's what nobody's talking about: most people still don't use it.
Survey data shows only 10% of people use AI tools daily. Even regular users struggle to think of things to do with it more than once a week. Meanwhile, tech Twitter acts like everyone's a power user.
This week, I'm sharing insights from Benedict Evans:
A tech analyst who's spent decades spotting patterns in platform shifts.
His take - AI is the biggest thing since the iPhone, but also only the biggest thing since the iPhone.
No panic. No hype. Just clear thinking about what's actually happening.
Before we dive deep, quick word from Superhuman
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Key Takeaways:
📊 The Adoption Gap
- Only 10% use AI daily; 20-30% tried it once and never returned
- Most people can't think of reasons to use it more than weekly
- The "faster than iPhone adoption" charts are misleading (it's free vs. $1,000)
🎯 Why People Don't Use It
- Requires active thinking: "What should I ask AI?"
- No obvious use cases for most people's actual work
- Mental overhead of forming new habits around a blank input box
💼 What's Actually at Stake
- Google's search revenue faces real threat—not from better tech, but from habit reset
- Apple might become "beautiful hardware for someone else's AI"
- Microsoft and Amazon want models to be commodity infrastructure (and they're winning)
🏆 The Winners & Losers
- Model quality is converging—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini feel identical in blind tests
- Integration beats standalone (Salesforce button > chatbot)
- Value capture will happen in unexpected places (like previous platform shifts)
🔮 The 10-Year View
- AI will reshape industries but won't end civilization
- In 10 years, it'll just be "software" (like we don't say "mobile internet" anymore)
- The next platform shift will already be emerging
💡 The Honest Truth
- We don't know which companies will win
- We don't know where value gets captured
- Early leaders often aren't final winners (remember MySpace?)
Read the full post:
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That’s it for this week
See you next week
Cheers,
Ayush & Aditi