📓Andrej Karpathy X Dwarkesh Patel

Why AI progress feels slow:

In partnership with

"We're not building animals. We're building ghosts."

That's Andre Karpathy explaining why AI won't look like biology—and why timelines are longer than the hype suggests.

After 15 years building AI (GPT-2, Tesla self-driving, now education), he's got frameworks that actually work.

  • The march of nines.

  • Model collapse.

  • Why coding is different.

  • What humans will do post-AGI.

and more…

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AI progress is way slower than you think.

The "intelligence explosion" already happened. And humans won't become obsolete—they'll become superhuman.

Andrej Karpathy has the receipts. And after watching him nail prediction after prediction while others got it wrong, I extracted every framework from his latest interview.

Including the one about why reinforcement learning is "terrible" (but we need it anyway) and why the geniuses of today are "barely scratching the surface" of what human minds can do.

Full post →

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Key Takeaways: What You'll Learn

Understanding AI Reality:

  • The March of Nines - Why every 9 of reliability (90% → 99% → 99.9%) takes constant effort, explaining why demos ship fast but products take decades

  • Ghosts vs Animals - We're training AI on internet documents (mimicking humans), not running evolution—fundamentally different intelligence

  • The Demo-to-Product Gap - Self-driving looked "done" in 2014, still isn't economical in 2025; same pattern will repeat with AI agents

What Actually Works Now:

  • Autocomplete is magic, VIP coding is slop - High-bandwidth communication (type 3 letters, get completion) beats low-bandwidth (describe in English)

  • The Autonomy Slider - Stop thinking "replacement," start thinking "what % of this job can AI handle?" (call centers: 80%, novel coding: 20%)

  • Coding works because it's text-native - Pre-built infrastructure (IDEs, diffs, tests) makes coding the perfect first domain; everything else is harder

Why Timelines Are Longer:

  • 5 missing pieces - Continual learning, true multimodality, context management, AI culture/collaboration, actual reasoning—each takes years

  • Reinforcement learning is terrible - "Sucking supervision through a straw"—upweighting entire trajectories based on one final number

  • Model collapse is real - AI trained on its own output gets dumber; maintaining entropy is an unsolved problem

The Cognitive Core Insight:

  • Smaller might be better - Future AI could be 1B parameters (vs current trillions), focused on thinking algorithms instead of memorized facts

  • Memory is a bug, not a feature - Models being too good at memorization prevents generalization and off-manifold thinking

Human Future (The Optimistic Part):

  • Education becomes fun, not useful - Post-AGI, learning is like gym (we don't need physical strength, but people still work out)

  • Geniuses are at 10% capacity - Current bottleneck is bad teaching, not human limits; perfect AI tutors unlock superhuman learning

  • The intelligence explosion already happened - We've been in recursive self-improvement since the Industrial Revolution; AI continues the trend

Practical Frameworks:

  • First principles thinking - Find the first-order terms (like micrograd: 100 lines captures ALL of neural network training)

  • Present pain before solutions - Best teaching: let people try, fail, then appreciate the answer

  • Translation invariance in time - Look back 10 years to predict next 10; progress requires algorithms + data + compute + systems improving together

Timeline Reality Check:

  • Decade of agents, not year - Fundamental capabilities need multiple breakthrough cycles

  • No discrete "foom" moment - Gradual diffusion, like every technology before it (can't find iPhone or internet in GDP curve)

  • Physics > hype - Train yourself to see spherical cows; approximate, then refine

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That’s it for this week

See you next week

Cheers,

Ayush & Aditi